Senior Analyst - Risk Projection & Portfolio Profitability

Position: Senior Analyst - Risk Projection & Portfolio Profitability

Department: Credit Risk Strategy

Experience: CA Qualified - 2-4 years post-qualification

About the Role

We are looking for a sharp, analytically-driven Chartered Accountant to own ECL projection modelling, portfolio profitability analysis, and financier-level reporting across our Personal Loan (PL) and Loan Against Property (LAP) portfolios. This role sits at the intersection of credit risk, finance, and data - you will build forward-looking models that directly influence capital allocation, provisioning, and business strategy.

You will work with a book size of ~8,000+ Cr across multiple financier partnerships (Sicreva, MAS, Piramal, SMFG, etc.), managing cohort-level ECL models, incremental NPA projections, and AUM waterfall analysis.

Key Responsibilities

ECL & Provisioning Modelling (40%)

 Build and maintain cohort-based ECL models across 8 tenure segments (6M to 15 Yrs)

 Model base runoff curves (PPMT amortization with foreclosure factor) and forward risk curves (NPA/Disb trajectories)

 Project incremental NPA month-on-month by cohort, tenure, and financier

 Maintain formula-driven Excel models with editable risk multipliers for scenario testing

 Calibrate models to actual performance: reconcile projected vs observed AUM, NPA, and runoff

 Handle partial month adjustments and MOB-based cutoffs for data quality

Portfolio Financial Reporting (30%)

 Compute financier-level P&L: revenue (interest + PF), cost of funds, credit cost, operating cost, net margin

 Build AUM waterfall: opening stock + new disbursement - runoff - NPA = closing performing AUM

 Track NPA stock, incremental NPA, and NPA% per financier, per tenure, per pool (Low-TS vs Pure)

 Prepare Direct Assignment (DA) reporting - split ECL projections by financier share

 Compute weighted average APR, yield, and spread by financier and product

 Monthly board deck inputs: AUM trajectory, NPA outlook, profitability by segment

Stress Testing & Scenario Analysis (20%)

 Run risk multiplier scenarios: impact on NPA/AUM if risk increases 20%/50% on specific tenures

 Assess impact of new product launches (e.g., 24M Low-TS) on portfolio risk profile

 Model vintage curve analysis: compare cohort performance, identify improving/worsening trends

 Evaluate collection efficiency impact on rolling DPD and bucket flow transitions (BX > B1 > B2 > NPA)

 Support regulatory provisioning (IndAS 109 / RBI guidelines) with ECL stage classification

Data & Automation (10%)

 Work with Snowflake (SQL) for data extraction: VW_MIS_POS tables, repayment data, bureau data

 Automate monthly data refresh for ECL models using Python/SQL

 Validate data integrity: reconcile ECL outputs with actual POS views and risk dashboard numbers

 Maintain documentation of model assumptions, forward curves, and calibration methodology

Required Qualifications

Must Have

 CA Qualified (ICAI) with 2+ years post-qualification experience

 Strong experience in credit risk / portfolio analytics / provisioning at an NBFC, bank, or fintech

 Expert-level Excel - multi-sheet formula-driven models, PPMT/PMT functions, scenario tables

 Working knowledge of SQL (Snowflake / BigQuery / Redshift) for data extraction

 Understanding of NPA classification, DPD buckets, ECL staging (Stage 1/2/3), RBI/IndAS 109 norms

 Experience with cohort analysis, vintage curves, and loss curve modelling

Good to Have

 Python (pandas, numpy) for data processing and model automation

 Experience with Direct Assignment / co-lending structures and financier-level reporting

 Familiarity with LAP/mortgage portfolio risk dynamics (longer tenure, secured)

 Exposure to stress testing frameworks and ICAAP

 Experience presenting to CXO / Board / rating agencies